This is what the next three months of weather could look like in Dundee
Dundee has reached that point in the year when checking the weather before leaving the house becomes increasingly worthwhile.
The darker nights are drawing in, temperatures are beginning to fall and autumn is now well underway.
But what could the rest of the season have in store?
The latest long-range outlook from the Met Office points towards an increased chance of a warmer and wetter autumn across the UK, with the possibility of windier and more unsettled weather becoming more noticeable as we head towards early winter.
There is also something unusual happening thousands of miles away in the Pacific Ocean which could play a part in what Dundee experiences over the coming months.
A record-breaking El Niño is continuing to develop – and historically, El Niño events have increased the chances of wetter and stormier conditions across the UK and north-west Europe later in autumn and into early winter.
So, does that mean three months of rain and gales are heading for Dundee?
Not quite.
What could October look like in Dundee?
Of the next three months, October is the one where forecasters can begin to give us a little more detail.
The Met Office’s current long-range forecast points towards a changeable first half of the month.
Areas of low pressure are expected to pass mainly to the northwest of the UK, bringing further spells of rain and stronger winds at times, particularly across northern and northwestern parts of the country.
There should still be drier spells between them, so this isn’t a forecast for relentless rain.
Temperatures are expected to sit close to or somewhat above average overall.
Looking further into the second half of October, the changeable theme is expected to continue, with showers or longer periods of rain moving in from the Atlantic at times.
For Dundee, the important word is changeable.
There could be perfectly decent autumn days mixed in with wet and windy ones, and the detail will become much clearer as individual weather systems get closer.
November could bring a greater chance of unsettled weather
Once we get into November, it becomes much harder to say what Dundee’s weather will look like on any particular day.
Instead, forecasters look for broader signals.
The Met Office’s seasonal outlook suggests the likelihood of a warm and wet autumn across the UK is around one-and-a-half to two times greater than would normally be expected.
The chances of windier conditions also increase later in the season.
That doesn’t mean Dundee will necessarily have an unusually wet November, nor does it tell us how many rainy or windy days we’ll get.
What it does tell us is that the odds are shifting towards a more unsettled pattern nationally.
And there’s another factor beginning to make its presence felt.
The strongest El Niño on record
Something remarkable has been happening in the tropical Pacific this year.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures across parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm.
It might be happening on the other side of the world, but changes on that scale can influence atmospheric patterns much further afield – including over Europe.
And the 2026 event isn’t a small one.
The Met Office confirmed in September that the developing El Niño had surpassed previous observations to become the strongest event in the observational record.
It’s expected to continue developing towards its seasonal peak later this year.
Historically, El Niño can increase the likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK, during late autumn and early winter.
That broadly lines up with what seasonal forecasting models are currently showing.
But there’s an important catch.
El Niño doesn’t control Dundee’s weather.
It’s one influence among several, and the UK’s position beside the highly changeable North Atlantic makes forecasting conditions months ahead particularly difficult.
A record-breaking El Niño doesn’t automatically mean record-breaking rain, storms or temperatures in Dundee.
And what about December?
December takes us into meteorological winter – and this is where confidence in the day-to-day picture becomes much lower.
Current evidence points towards an increased chance of wetter, windier and potentially stormier conditions across the UK during late autumn and early winter.
El Niño’s influence on European weather is also expected to become more significant as the event approaches its winter peak.
But that still doesn’t allow forecasters to say whether Dundee will have a stormy December, a mild Christmas or – the question that inevitably comes around every year – any snow.
Those details simply can’t be predicted reliably this far ahead.
A wetter and milder seasonal signal doesn’t rule out cold spells either. Scotland can still experience shorter periods of frost, ice or snow within a season that turns out to be mild overall.
We’ll have to get considerably closer to December before the picture becomes clearer.
What does all of this actually mean for Dundee?
For now, perhaps the most useful way to look at the outlook isn’t as a three-month weather forecast but as a change in the odds.
There’s an increased chance that the remainder of autumn and beginning of winter will turn out wetter than usual across the UK, with the likelihood of windy weather increasing later in the season.
For Dundee, that means being prepared for spells of wet and windy weather – but not assuming every week between now and Christmas is going to be a washout.
In fact, there will almost certainly be plenty of variation along the way.
That’s particularly relevant as places such as Mills Observatory begin their winter season. Cloud cover can make the difference between a night spent looking through the telescope and one where Dundee’s weather has other ideas.
It’s also why forecasts become far more useful as we get closer to the day in question.
The Met Office’s three-month outlook can tell us which way the odds are leaning. Its 30-day forecasts begin to reveal broader weather patterns, while shorter-range forecasts eventually provide the local detail that tells us whether Dundee itself is likely to be wet, windy, clear or cold.
So the broad picture for the months ahead?
October: Changeable, with rain and stronger winds at times but drier spells too. Temperatures generally around or above average.
November: Confidence in individual weather events drops considerably, but the broader autumn outlook points towards an increased chance of wetter conditions, with wind becoming a greater factor later in the season.
December: Too far away for a Dundee-specific forecast, although current signals favour an increased chance of unsettled, wet and windy weather across the UK as autumn gives way to early winter.
And somewhere behind all of that sits a record-breaking El Niño in the Pacific, nudging the odds – but certainly not writing Dundee’s forecast for us.
For that, we’ll still have to keep an eye on the skies.
